What Happened to Oil?

This is not history. This is happening right now!

  • The largest pandemic ever.*
  • The largest oil price-drop ever.
  • The largest unemployment numbers ever.
  • The largest Fed printing ever.
  • The largest fiscal package ever.
  • The largest shared experience ever.
  • The largest one-month stock price-drop ever.
  • The largest three-week stock price increase ever. 
  • The largest stay-at-home experiment ever.
  • The largest home-schooling experiment ever.

If we are left with any take-away, it’s that we are left thinking, “I have no idea.” And it’s the ignorant that lead with complete confidence into a world of unknown. 

Then there’s all those new fancy terms…  

  • Flattening the curve
  • Wet market
  • R-Nought
  • Case fatality rate
  • Virologist (who knew we had so many)
  • Contact tracing
  • Covid-19
  • Coronavirus
  • PPE
  • N95 respirator 
  • Sars-CoV2
  • Social distancing
  • Shelter-in-place
  • Super-spreader
  • Asymptomatic
  • Community spread
  • Self-quarantine
  • Drive thru testing
  • Droplet transmission
  • Essential activities
  • Home isolation
  • Political malfeasance (I snuck that one in)
  • Special purpose vehicles
  • Front line healthcare workers
  • Lending Facility
  • Tiger King (I mean really… who knew there was a whole new level of crazy?)

And then there’s behavior…

If lockdown ends on May 1st, do you:

A) pack your bags, jump in an Uber, sit at an airport, stand in line, sit on a plane for three hours breathing recirculated air, taxi to the gate, stand in line again to get off the plane, get into another Uber, check-in to a Hilton, eat food you would never eat at home, sleep in a foreign bed, get up, eat more bad food, and take yet another Uber, so you can sit in a room with six other people for a couple hours? Or,

B) change out of your pajamas… maybe, and walk over to your kitchen counter and talk to the same six people on a screen?  

Because this is the new normal. 

Our economy will open again. No big insight here. And maybe we get right back to 80% of what it was before (although 80% still means a 20% loss.) 

But then things get even weirder. There’s the stock/bond market. It’s almost like these guys have no idea what is going on with the economy. None. So what gives?

FOURTEEN WORDS!

“When it comes to lending, we are not going to run out of ammunition.”

—Jerome Powell, speaking to the press on March 26, 2020

READ: ammunition = unlimited money printing. 

I’m not sure when it started. Probably the late ‘80’s when the US government did its Savings and Loan bailout. It was probably around then when US capitalism started to change to something else. And today we have that something else. 

“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.

—Frank Borman (astronaut/ businessman)

Frank Borman is a true American Hero—Commander of Apollo 8, the first mission to fly around the moon. The first of only 24 humans to ever do so. Engineer. CEO of Eastern Airlines. And the type of person that movies are made about. 

“Give us, O God, the vision which can see Your love in the world in spite of human failure. Give us the faith to trust Your goodness in spite of our ignorance and weakness. Give us the knowledge that we may continue to pray with understanding hearts. And show us what each one of us can do to set forward the coming of the day of universal peace.

—Franks prayer from Apollo 8, on Christmas Day, 1968

I know I’m not supposed to talk about politics or religion… so if you aren’t religious you can simply replace the word “God” with “higher power” or as my sister likes to say, “source energy.” But the fact that Frank was a god-fearing man gives his first quote more weight. You see Frank knew a thing or two of both Christianity and Capitalism. 

“A superior pilot uses his superior judgment to avoid situations
which require the use of his superior skill.”

Frank Borman

If only Frank was running this country… or the Fed.

This weeks video has some of my thinkings on: 

  1. Bookshelves
  2. Why no one cares about gold
  3. How oil got negative 
  4. Additional baggage fees
  5. Zoom meetings in kids bedroom
  6. Sweden
  7. The six indicators showing a market bottom

…and so much more. 


You can watch it all in this week’s video.

* Anything longer than 100 years is going to be called “ever,” because, you know, humans only live for about 80 years. So anything longer than the longest life cycle is “ever” in my books. 

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