Economics vs Price… Choose Wisely.

Hold on… here we go. I think of things as being cheap, fair or rich. And today, broadly speaking, there is nothing cheap and if you draw a midline down that range which we will call intrinsic value, there is almost or maybe nothing or virtually nothing that is selling below its intrinsic value. –…

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New Lifetime Highs AND New Lows… Position Accordingly

Taking its time… If all you’ve been thinking is, the only thing this market does is go higher, then look below. Charlie Bilello has a nice chart showing just how long it’s taken the S&P500 to break above a new 100 point mark. In the last 20 years this is the third longest time it’s…

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Avoid These Five Parts Of The Market

avoid these 5 parts of the market

Avoiding what is falling or weakening is as important, if not more important, then buying what’s going up. But when you are taught to diversify over 15 ETFs or more you add complexity to your world. Which means you are going to miss the signal to get out when it happens. And you’ll be owning…

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US Yields Are Plunging… here’s what to do.

No one is prepared… Okay, maybe not “no one,” but very few people are prepared. NOT for the market to get cut in half again but for it to rip higher. With headlines like “… greatest outflows since 2008…” people are scared the next 50% drop will happen while they’re trying to sleep.   But…

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Bond Volatility Returns

Volatility has returned to the markets… but not where people are expecting it. The volatility is NOT in stocks… but bonds. And it could cost people a lot. Why is this happening? Has this happened before? What does it mean? If it has happened before how did it resolve itself? Who got hurt? Who didn’t…

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This Chart Tells the China – US Trade War Best

china-us trade war

At 12:00 PM on January 20th 2017, the 45th President of the United States was sworn in. He lost the election by 2.9 million votes, the largest margin ever by a candidate that went on to win the Presidency (wait, what…? Yep. He lost. But because the US still follows an 18 century law, he…

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Investment Lies

In the span of three hours I got an email from Peter Attia, a medical doctor that specializes in longevity. And another one from Shane Parrish, a former Canadian intelligence employee. And yet, they were both talking about the same topic on the same day. The first email referenced an article about two cyclists who…

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Is it finally time to step away from US Stocks?

Fifty-five percent of the human brain was designed to see patterns. The follow five charts will be shown with very little commentary. All five charts are five years in length and are being compared against the S&P500 with dividends reinvested. But you’re only going to see one squiggly line and not two on each chart.…

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What’s happening with Healthcare?

In the year 2000 the S&P500 Index started a two and a half year 49% drop. There was one sector that stood out more than any other. It was Healthcare. Yes, Healthcare got hit, but it only fell 17%, during a time period when the Nasdaq fell 76% and the S&P500 fell 49%. So only…

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Did U.S. stocks just lose their leadership position?

Your goal is to head north. I’m telling you this and not suggesting it. So you go to the bus station and you see three bus routes: North, South and Around-Town. The southbound bus has a party taking place on it. People are laughing. Drinking. Dancing and having a great time. I mean they are…

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